War flutters in the persian gulf

Tehran plays with prisoners, the USA sends third aircraft carrier group

The head of Israeli military intelligence Amos Yadlin reported to the Israeli cabinet yesterday that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah were preparing for war in Lebanon. They would expect an attack in the summer and prepare measures to defend themselves. At the same time that the German Chancellor spread optimism during her visit to the Middle East, Yadlin sees signs of growing instability in the region, the U.S. is deploying another aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf and Russia is expecting an attack in April.

Israel must prepare for the possibility that the U.S. may soon withdraw troops from Iraq. Although the U.S. President intends to veto Congressional withdrawal plans, for Israel a foreseeable withdrawal next year that strengthens insurgents and extremists (not only in Iraq) could pose increased danger. In any case, Yadlin sees the quite realistic possibility that anarchy will finally break out in Iraq and the conflict between Shiites and Sunnis will continue to spread, which will also affect Lebanon and the relationship between Hamas and Hezbollah. According to Yadlin, Iran and Syria amed that the USA was planning an attack and that Israel would be involved. The developments would be closely monitored, because a war could break out due to the many parties involved, without this really being desired.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, at the press conference with Angela Merkel, rejected the suggestion that the U.S. and Israel were preparing an attack together, with the U.S. attacking Iran and Israel attacking Lebanon and Syria simultaneously. This is a plan that the Israeli government knows nothing about, he said. It is a rumor without any basis.



The Iranian government, led by President Ahmadinejad, is currently toying with the captured British marines. With the already heated conflict over Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian influence on Iraq, this can only be seen as a provocation. The government hopes that the USA and Israel are currently too weak to actually launch a military strike? Do they want to establish themselves as a strong power in the Arab region, defying the superpower and its allies?? Or is one really of the opinion that the British have already repeatedly invaded Iranian territory and one is completely in the right?? In any case, Ahmadinejad also seems to have a domestic political interest in the conflict with the "bose" USA to secure its power and provide stability.

The same could be said of the Bush administration, which is becoming unable to act abroad and now also through the Democratic-controlled Congress. The strategy of providing greater security in Iraq by increasing the number of troops can already be seen as a failure. The withdrawal from Iraq demanded by the Congress would not only be the seal of a failed policy, but probably also in fact a reinforcement of the struggle against the West and Western ideals caused by the high-handed invasion of Iraq. If the troops were withdrawn, the insurgents and militias of the various camps could keep a low profile for so long. And with the withdrawal from Iraq, the next failed campaign in Afghanistan was probably also on the agenda. Wenn sich die Amerikaner aus Afghanistan zuruckziehen, wurden die Nato-Truppen dort weiter bleiben und Europa am Hindukusch verteidigen?

The U.S. has already banned two airline associations – Eisenhower and John C. Stennis – in the Persian Gulf, with which at least a military intervention in Iran for the bombardment of the most important nuclear plants and military bases can be accomplished. Already the dispatch of the second aircraft carrier group was seen as a clear signal to Iran and as a possible preparation for war. Now, with the Nimitz, the third aircraft carrier with 6.000 soldiers sent to the Persian Gulf. Plus the battleships Princeton, Higgins, Chafee, John Paul Jones and Pinckne, all of which can fire guided missiles. Allegedly Nimitz will relieve Eisenhower, but at least for a short time there will be three units stationed off Iran. This sounds innocuous, but the fact that the deployment of Nimitz occurred only during the conflict with the captured British soldiers does raise fears, especially since the cornered Bush administration could possibly seek relief in a war.