The case after the bang

At the end of November, Israel’s head of government cared Ariel Sharon with his exit from the Likud block for excitement. Now he has disappeared from the country’s political life

The Basic of Kadima, the new party of Ariel Scharon, had been a small sensation: Not only did the Israeli prime minister had the Likud block, that party he said in 1974, Liebewohl, but also a collecting tank for politicians of the left and created the conservative equally. Hardly any day passed the media does not register the entry of another prominent politician, journalists or academics. But Kadima always moved to the person’s Person: The Through Prime Minister was the party; Its popularity with the electors was what the party made in the surveys – a fact that the curiosity could now be dangerous: A week ago Ariel Sharon suffered a serious stroke, followed by massive brain bleeding. Even if he should ever recover, he will not return to political life. The policy must therefore quickly set itself on a new realitation. Because on the 28. Marz is chosen in Israel.

The party tailored to Sharon Kadima now has to do without him

For a week, the eyes of the world on the Hadassah hospital in the Jerusalem district of a Kerem was directed: in a tent camp in front of the sharp guards of the hospital camped dozens of journalists, to each other so small detail from the medical record of the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to stream. The head of government moved his finger, threw it on one day, it had been observed a movement of the leg, at another. It was waiting for the death of the Prime Minister or his wondrous recovery and was reflected in the absence of both speculations, while the increasingly annoyed hospital administration stressed to move the media army to deduct

Only when Chief Physician Professor Schlomo Mor-Jossef announced on Wednesday, he would only speak of the world press, if there are really world-minute changes, the first media representatives started packing their equipment together:

The state of government is serious, and will remain a while. In the best case, it takes months until a patient has recovered from a stroke, which was as hard as this.

Schlomo Mor-Jossef

The focus is on the focus now on the power centers of the Israeli government a few kilometers further east, in the Jerusalem inner city: the news of Sharon’s serious illness sent a shock wave through Israel and the world. Although the heavily superior head of government was treated in mid-December because of a mild stroke, no one had expected Sharon soon disappeared from the political bea: 57 years ago he had been prasent in the openness – first as a soldier, who was as daring as lossy Operations talked about. And then as a politician: 1974, together with Menachem Begin, he was the conservative Likud block, which, during the work part of the random of the Palastic areas, had risen in the eyes of the openness to the glosser of the status quo, and the Social Democrats 1977 for the first time Time in the history of the state the power decreased – a zasur in the political history of Israel. Sharon was convinced that the occupied territories had to be kept from strategic grounds.

At the end of November, the 77-year-olds were then taken care of for a second gross bang: a few hours after him the convinced socialist and chairman of the powerful trade union roof association Histadrut, Amir Peretz, who has been chosen to chairman of the workers’ party in mid-November, gave the rough coalition, said Sharon his resignation from the Likud block, whose faction had only known in fragments behind him, and the constituence of a new party known, which he first called "national responsibility" and then shortly thereafter "Kadima" (waiting for). Then he drove to Prasident Mosque Kazaw to ask him to re-elections, the on the 28. Marz be held. In the following days, more and more politicians from the Likud, the workers’ party, Schinui and the left-liberal Meretz / Jachad Group as well as a whole series of well-known journalists and academics to him and made sure that Kadima cut into the surveys on the strongest power.

But the coarse bang could now follow: Although Kadima ranked in the surveys with up to 44 of the 120 parliamentary seats this week; Experts, however, write this, however, to the so-called "sympathetic factory": it is likely that many of the Wahler will return to the workers’ party and to Schinui when it gets serious about the ballotes, the opinion researcher Professor Ascher Arian says:

An similar development we have seen after the murder of Jitzhak Rabin 1995. After the survey values for his successor Schimon Peres had been breathtakingly high, the workers’ party broke completely in 1996 in 1996 and lost the Likud candidate Benjamin Netanyahu.

Two Polls Published Friday Indicated That Support for Kadima Keeps Growing, And That Olmert Is The OverWhelming Favorite to Become Prime Minister in A March 28 General Election. In The Surveys, Kadima Won 42 and 43 Seats, Respectiveely, in the 120 member

Fight for the successor Sharons

For Kadima, structural problems are also added: the party was Sharon; Your success in the surveys is based on the popularity of the head of government, which had enforced the settlement rooms last year against all resistance. But their political program is known only in coarse: officially the roadmap, the internationally agreed peace plan, was ied as a political guideline. Jerusalem see Jerusalem as a undivided capital of Israel, the retention of certain settlement bloc in the West Bank, the demilitarization of the artistic Palastic State and a Judian majority in the state of Israel. Their message to the Wahler was almost exclusively Sharon, who had almost completely avoided political statements in the election campaign. His place has now taken politically experienced, but colorless and uncharismatic finance ministers and former burgermaster of Jerusalem Ehud Olmert. The expectations of him are high: the public expects him that he ensures political continuity; His own party hopes that he can implement the high survey values in a real election result.

But the chances of Dafur are not good: his competitors around the office of Prime Minister drive heavy protected to meet him voices. After a short break, both workers’ party as well as Likud opened the fire on the transitional premier. Olmert stands for poverty, Peretz throws him again and again; Olmert put the security of the state to the game, claimed Netanyahu.

The focus of the election campaign is, above all, the question is who is the most virgin successor for Sharon. In an interview with the New York Times ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the conservative Likud block as "heritage" Sharons; Olmert condemned the exercise as a "tasteless": Netanyahu and Sharon were destroyed on the decision-making process before the settlement room and changed no word in the end. On the other hand, Amir Peretz, chairman of the workers’ party attempted to give a state-owned painting, in which he served for a break in the election campaign and polling all the activities of his party for a week.

The main drifting point are the settlement soul posts built without permission: In November, the Supreme Court has arranged that several houses occupied by Siedlern had to be quenched in the former coarse market in the old town of Hebron. In addition, a whole range of non-licensed stock items is available for room.



"It seems like Olmert is not sure how to proceed in this matter," says Ze’ew ship, commentator of the newspaper Hairetz. He does not help, and disregarded the judgment of the Supreme Court he stands in the eyes of the left as a profilless, but could give voices on the right. Should it come to violent clashes in the event of a room, the political consequences for him are hardly sufficient: in a first evacuation of an AUBE post on Wednesday morning, four policemen and Zwolf settlers were injured. In addition, the Right Olmerts contribute to the Palasticians in East Jerusalem now participation in the palastic parliamentary elections on 25. January to allow a limited election campaign: Olmert will share Jerusalem, threw in the Netanyahu.

"Olmert is determined not to repeat the mistakes that had made Peres 1995," says ship. Peres had tried at the time, with a hard hand policy against the Palastinians the Oslo-contained Israeli offering to one of the Oslo-contained Israeli opportunity and had that, which had a lot of his Wahler on the left, which would have remained away from the election. But unlike Peres, Olmert has to act if he does not want to deal with unpleasant questions of the Supreme Court shortly before the election.

In a crisis caused by the lack of Sharon also other parties

But other parties have their Arger with the election campaign: both the Likud chief Netanjahu and the Chairman of the Radical-Liberal Schinui Party made their own party members on Thursday evening the bill: Netanyahu had the four ministers of the Likud, the still in the government saben, asked to submit your jerking on Thursday – so before the Central Committee of the party in the afternoon voted over the composition of the election list. But the quartet was first refused to sign the letter of jerk letters and relyed the jerkiness for Sunday. After massive prere of the party lit, at least three of them love to move. Only Aufemister Silwan Schalom, who was in the election to the party chairman in mid-December, remained in his refusal – and landed promptly on one of the front lists: a strict reminder at Netanyahu, the party not too much to jerk into the political center.

Meanwhile, it was very bad for the Schinui chairman Jossef "Tommy" Lapid. Although he landed on Thursday at the party vote on the election list with a subterranean result of 53 percent again in the first place. But his previous number two, Avraham Poras, immersed only under "Further Run": At its place, the 34-year-old, politically inexperienced Roni Levinthal is called – a result, which of many observers as a mistrust vote of the already under heavy prere was evaluated. Surveys say Schinui only a maximum of FUNF instead of the previous 15 seats in parliament.

On the spades Thursday evening Poraz and three other members of Schinui came out and will probably be their own party ground. Confidentutors of Jossef Lapid counted that the party chairman will follow them – a step that observers are entitled to be suicide for the old and the still underlying party.

Still on the night, separated from each other in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, the campaign teams of workers’ party and Kadima to advise the best way to remove Schinui the electoral votes. "Shinui should actually disappear completely from the picture area, the cards will be mixed new," says Demoscope Arian:

For the two parties, it is now about who will be the first to convince the whahrs to change to them.

Explorative researcher ashtray Arian