Government formation in spain or fourth round of elections in four years??
Jon Inarritu. Image: EH Bildu
The situation is further confused, as Pedro Sanchez has not really negotiated and is also vetoing his potential alliance partners
The leader of the Spanish Social Democrats, Pedro Sanchez, had played a dangerous game in the spring, provoking new elections because he was not prepared to make concessions to those who had brought him to power in June 2018 by means of a constructive motion of no confidence. He failed to get his budget through parliament and therefore had to call new elections on 28. April schedule. He hoped not to have to rely on Catalan votes in parliament again afterwards.
In fact, his desired result practically came to pass. The Social Democrats (PSOE) were able to gain ground against Podemos, which was positioned further to the left, and it was even enough to achieve a stable absolute majority with the right-wing neoliberal Ciudadanos (Cs), as Sanchez had hoped.
But Ciudadanos party leader Albert Rivera has also had to contend with massive internal criticism of his "No to Sanchez" held firm so far. The former member of the right-wing People’s Party (PP) has long been on a right-wing course. That the alleged "Liberals" The fact that Sanchez, in addition to Andalusia, is now also negotiating and pacting with the far-right VOX in Madrid is not only meeting with internal criticism. The French leader Macron is also threatening the Cs with expulsion from the Liberal Group in the European Parliament.
So nothing is clear for Monday, when Sanchez holds his speech from 12 o’clock in the parliament. He is expected to fail in the first round of voting on Tuesday, as he lacks the necessary majority. Whether he will be elected on Thursday on the second ballot, if it is enough more "Yes" as "No"-Votes to get depends on votes from the Basque Country and Catalonia, given the refusal of the Cs.
The votes Sanchez needs
Everything depends on whether the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which is in strategic alliance with the Basque Euskal Herria Bildu (Basque Country United), votes for Sanchez, as it did in the no-confidence motion a year ago. Sanchez’s refusal to negotiate with both parties does not make the situation any easier.
In addition, ERC leader Oriol Junqueras is still imprisoned, even though the UN working group has demanded the release of this political prisoner and government lawyers have demanded high prison sentences against him during the trial, although evidence of alleged rebellion, sedition or embezzlement has shone mainly through absence.
The fact that even Junqueras and other Catalans elected to Parliament have been prevented from taking their seats, and finally that Junqueras has been prevented from entering the European Parliament, makes it impossible for the left-wing parties to vote for Sanchez.
Until the weekend it even looked as if Sanchez would not even get the votes of Podemos. Because vehemently he rejected before a coalition government and Podemos ministers in the cabinet. But since the Podemos base in a survey clearly expressed itself with 70% in favor of supporting Sanchez only in a coalition, he recently had to give in partially.
Brussel wants more stable situation in fourth largest eurozone country
In the end, he only vetoed party leader Pablo Iglesias. Whether he hoped that Podemos would refuse in order to blame the party for new elections in November is a matter of speculation.
It is clear that Iglesias, after massive prere, has now stepped aside. This cleared the way for a coalition, and on Sunday negotiations were hurriedly held, something that had been slept on for almost three months. In any case, Brussel has long exerted prere as well.
There, they want to see a more stable situation in the fourth-crumbling eurozone and, in view of the economic recession in Europe and in Spain, they finally want to see a budget presented. Of all things, the party-affiliated newspaper El PaIs carried as its lead story that the "Grace period" For Sanchez expired.
The problem remains that Sanchez needs an abstention from ERC-EH Bildu in the second round of voting to become head of government again. Because the formation of the former Catalan head of government Carles Puigdemont has already "No" announced. Because Sanchez refused to negotiate an independence referendum.
In the face of rising right-wing radicals in Spain, the ERC-EH Bildu decision is not yet a foregone conclusion, as Jon Inarritu of the Basque Party Federation explains in the following Telepolis interview.